UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

College Park Campus

Fall Semester 2003

ENCE 627 – Decision Analysis for Engineering (3 credit)

          Tuesdays 3:30 pm – 6:00 pm, EGR 3102

INSTRUCTOR:

                               Name:                   Dr. Ibrahim A. Assakkaf

                               Office Hours:   Tu W 1:00 am - 3:00 pm

                                                            F      2:30 noon -4:30 pm, and by appointment

                               Office:                   0305, Engineering Classroom Building (EGR)

                                                            Center for Technology and Systems Management (CTSM)

                               Telephone:            (W) 301-405-3279

                               Email:                    assakkaf@eng.umd.edu

                               URL:                     http://ctsm.umd.edu/assakkaf

TA & GRADER:

                                Name:                   to be added and revised

                                Office Hours:        T 2:00 pm – 3:15 pm

                                Room                   EGR 1107

                                Telephone:            (123) 123-4567

                                Email:                    TA@domain.com        

TEXTBOOK:  “Making Hard Decisions with DecisionTools,” by Robert T. Clemen and Terence Reilly, 2nd edition (revised), Duxbury Press, NY, 2001.

REFERENCES:

1. “Decision Making and Forecasting,”  by Marshall, K. T. and Oliver, R. M., McGraw Hill, NY, 1995.
2. “Statistics and Reliability for Engineers,”  by Ayyub, B.M., and McCuen, R., CRC Press, FL, 1997.
3. “Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design,” Volume II,  by Ang, and Tang , John Wiley and Sons, NY, 1975.
4. Instructor’s notes.

GRADING:  HW (25%), Project (25%) Midterm Exam (25%), Final Exam (25%).

GENERAL COURSE DESCRIPTION (UMD SCHEDULE OF CLASSES):

Probability basics, subjective probability, using data, introduction to decision analysis, elements of decision problems, structuring decisions, making choices, sensitivity analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, value of information, risk-based decision making, multiobjective problems, stochastic dynamic programming. Applications in engineering and economics.

COURSE OUTLINE & SCHEDULE:

COURSE WEBSITE:

Students are encourage to access course the web site at: http://www.ajconline.umd.edu to download course materials such as class notes, homework sets, and solutions. Timely information will also be posted on the web site.  At initial login, use your wam account name as the username, and your SID as the password. You are advised to change your password after your first login. Report any problem with the course web site to the instructor.  For technical problems of the web site, contact the Instructional Technologies staffs at 0123 Martin Hall.

HOMEWORK ASSIGNMENTS:

Professional presentation of homework assignments is required.  Professional presentation consists of neat and organized solution of problems on one side of 8.5"x11" papers.  Any homework not complying with professional standards will not be graded and will be assigned zero credit.  The homework assignments are due one week after they are assigned.  Homework will be assigned as the material is covered and will be collected every Tuesday at the beginning of the lecture period.  Solutions will be available from the TAs and on the class website after the problems are returned.  No assignment will be accepted after the answers have been posted.  Students are encouraged to discuss and formulate solutions to the problems by working in teams.  However, assignments must be completed and submitted individually.  Simply copying the answers from another student or from a solutions manual is not acceptable and will not be tolerated.  General guidelines for homework are given below:

1. Use good quality paper, such as engineering graph paper or college-ruled paper, any color, with no spiral edges.
2. Write on only one side of the paper.
3. Either pen or pencil is acceptable.
4. Include your name, course, and page number (e.g. 1/3 means 1 of 3) on each sheet.
5. Staple all pages together in the upper left corner.
6. Neatly box all answers, and include appropriate units for numerical answers.
7. Show all work (e.g. no work means no credit will be given).

If the above guidelines are not followed, the TA will either reject the assignment outright, for extreme cases, or deduct points for items that do not conform to the specifications.

EXAMS:

All students must take all quizzes and exams including the final exam.  Only extenuating circumstances will be accepted as excuse for missing an exam.  Health related excuses require medical reports and the signature of a physician that provided treatment.

PROJECT (Term Paper):

Individuals or teams of two are required to work on a research study on a selected topic in decision and uncertainty analyses, perform needed tasks, and submit the following as applicable:

-        Title Page

-        Executive Summary

-        Table of Contents

-        Objectives and scope

-        Data and Simulation if needed

-        Methodology summary

-        Applications

-        Conclusions

-        References and Appendices